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ABSTRACT In general relativistic magnetohydrodynamic (GRMHD) simulations, accreted magnetic flux on the black hole horizon episodically decays, during which magnetic reconnection heats up the plasma near the horizon, potentially powering high-energy flares like those observed in M87* and Sgr A*. We study the mm observational counterparts of such flaring episodes in very high resolution GRMHD simulations. The change in 230 GHz flux during the expected high energy flares depends primarily on the efficiency of accelerating γ ≳ 100 (Te ≳ 1011 K) electrons. For models in which the electrons are heated to Te ∼ 1011 K during flares, the hot plasma produced by reconnection significantly enhances 230 GHz emission and increases the size of the 230 GHz image. By contrast, for models in which the electrons are heated to higher temperatures (which we argue are better motivated), the reconnection-heated plasma is too hot to produce significant 230 GHz synchrotron emission, and the 230 GHz flux decreases during high energy flares. We do not find a significant change in the mm polarization during flares as long as the emission is Faraday thin. We also present expectations for the ring-shaped image as observed by the Event Horizon Telescope during flares, as well as multiwavelength synchrotron spectra. Our results highlight several limitations of standard post-processing prescriptions for the electron temperature in GRMHD simulations. We also discuss the implications of our results for current and future observations of flares in Sgr A*, M87*, and related systems. Appendices contain detailed convergence studies with respect to resolution and plasma magnetization. 

Abstract Extreme weather events have devastating impacts on human health, economic activities, ecosystems, and infrastructure. It is therefore crucial to anticipate extremes and their impacts to allow for preparedness and emergency measures. There is indeed potential for probabilistic subseasonal prediction on time scales of several weeks for many extreme events. Here we provide an overview of subseasonal predictability for case studies of some of the most prominent extreme events across the globe using the ECMWF S2S prediction system: heatwaves, cold spells, heavy precipitation events, and tropical and extratropical cyclones. The considered heatwaves exhibit predictability on time scales of 3–4 weeks, while this time scale is 2–3 weeks for cold spells. Precipitation extremes are the least predictable among the considered case studies. ­Tropical cyclones, on the other hand, can exhibit probabilistic predictability on time scales of up to 3 weeks, which in the presented cases was aided by remote precursors such as the Madden–Julian oscillation. For extratropical cyclones, lead times are found to be shorter. These case studies clearly illustrate the potential for event-dependent advance warnings for a wide range of extreme events. The subseasonal predictability of extreme events demonstrated here allows for an extension of warning horizons, provides advance information to impact modelers, and informs communities and stakeholders affected by the impacts of extreme weather events.